There are those who like to skip to the end of a book to see who dunnit. For those, I'll put my bottom line prediction here at the top. I think Biden will win the popular vote and in the Electoral College (293 to 245). A map of how I think this will play out, by state, is here. This assumes a narrow Biden victory in both Pennsylvania and Michigan and that Democrats can overcome any shenanigans in North Carolina. I do not believe they can overcome the governor of Georgia and I think they will lose Florida.
Numerically, that's what I think will happen, and I've taken into account possible voter suppression, in the map above. As far as what is going to transpire, after the voting, I've been thinking about several scenarios, some unlikely, some terrifying and some in between.
1. Trump wins. As with 2016, he loses the popular vote. But, again, he wins the electoral college. Democrats concede. There are spontaneous demonstrations, as there were four years ago, but they are put down by Barr and emboldened local police forces across the country.
2. There is a legitimate tie 269-269 in the Electoral College. In the end, this is a Trump victory. What happens in between, I can't foresee. Probably lawsuits from both sides as well as demonstrations from both sides and some violence.
3. Biden wins, but by just a little in the Electoral College. Trump and Barr and the Republicans go scorched earth in the courts. Many Democratic votes are discounted. Some Republican legislatures and/or governors certify slates of electors that are faithless to their states popular vote. The left and mainstream Democrats go into the streets to protest the theft of the election. Some demonstrations are massive. Trump signals his followers to rough up demonstrators. Demonstrators are struck by vehicles in multiple cities. There are one, two, many Kenoshas. The police stand aside. Demonstrations become mass and sustained, with ordinary citizens joining and materially supporting. Police, feds and some military attack demonstrators in multiple cities. Calls for a general strike become louder and are heeded in some areas. ......This story might not have a happy ending, since it is dependent on institutions that have not shown themselves to be willing to do the right thing: The Supreme Court, Congress, the police, the national guard, the army. ...The worst case scenario is not implausible. Prison camps used to detain protesters. Martial law in many areas. Some governors resisting and not allowing their national guard troops to participate. Trump nationalizing all national guard. Daily street fighting between Trump goons, militias etc and an increasingly large, desperate and violent antifa. Nationwide martial law. Full on fascism.
4. Biden wins decisively, with at least 25 electoral votes to spare, as in my prediction at the top. Trump doesn't concede, but Republican lawsuits fail as the scenarios differ enough in the different states and circuits that the Supreme Court can't get their hands on a decisive case. Republican politicians start to decide to cut Trump loose. There is continuing right wing violence and long term terrorism, but Biden is inaugurated.
5. A Biden blow out. An actual landslide in the Electoral College. Even Trump knows he's beat.
I'm writing this the day before the election. Please vote! To secure this right, people like C.T. Vivian and John Lewis were beaten. Medgar Evers, James Chaney, Andrew Goodman, Michael Schwerner, Viola Liuzzo and countless others died. ...Hopefully, none of us will.
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